Europe at Risk 2.0

November 2014 - December 2015
Anna Ganeva and Ivan Krastev

The series of seminars included:

- New Paradigms for European Security (November 24-25, 2014)

- Europe at Risk 2.0 (January 26-27, 2015)

- Europe - a shelter or a fortress? Facing the refugee flows challenge (November 2, 2015)

 

Seminar I

New Paradigms for European Security 

November 24-25, 2014

Defining the boundaries of Europe: security risks and possible policy responses.

Panel 1:  The Turkey and Middle East perspective

Panel 2: The Wider Europe perspective.

Panel 3: The perspective of the Balkans.

Panel 4: The military perspective

Panel 5: Hopes and fears for the security of Europe: Sanctions vs diplomacy; diplomacy vs confrontation?

Discussion: Re-thinking the security policies of Europe and its neighbours

Participants: Mahmood Sariolghalam, Professor of International Relations, National University of Iran, Tehran; Viola Raheb, independent consultant on development cooperation and cross-cultural dialogue; Ahmet Kasim Han, Kadir Has University; Avraham Burg, Former Member and Speaker of the Knesset and Senior Fellow at Kreisky Forum; Gertraud Auer Borea d'Olmo, Secretary General, Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue; Ghia Nodia, political analyst and President of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Developmenr, Georgia; Maria Lipman, Visiting Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; Anton Shekhovtsov, researcher, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, London, junior visiting fellow, IWM, Vienna; Jelena Milic, Director, Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies, Belgrade; Igo Rogova, Executive Director, Kosova Women's Network, Kosovo; Johanna Deimel, Deputy-Director Southeast Europe Association, Munich; Gen. Sir Richard Shirreff, DSACEUR (tbc); Lt. Gen. Ton Van Osch,Director General, EU Military Staff (tbc); Brigadier Mag. Dr. Johann Frank, MAS, Büro für Sicherheitspolitik (BürfSihPol); Zoltán Martinusz, Director for Enlargement, Security, Civil Protection and FAC Support in the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU; Nina Khrushcheva, Professor for international relations at New School New York; Joris Van Bladel, Researcher, Research group Russia and CIS countries at Stiftung Wissenschaft Und politik (SWP); Vladislav Inozemtsev, professor of economics, director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies; Avraham Burg, Former Member and Speaker of the Knesset and Senior Fellow at Kreisky Forum; Walter Posch, Senior Associate, The Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik; Torbjörn Sohlström, Director-General for Political Affairs, Swedish Government; Stefan Lehne, expert on European foreign policy and international security, visiting scholar, Carnegie Europe, Brussels;


Seminar II  
 
Europe at Risk 2.0
 
January 26-27, 2015
 
 

Framework "Security Risks and Policy Options in the EU"

Panel 1: The internal developments in the European Union

a) Consequences of economic and financial crisis on internal cohesion and solidarity 
b) Rise of populism and radicalization of societies
 
Regarding the internal developments there is a vivid public discussion ongoing regarding national policy contents. This has a polarizing effect on some EU societies. On the topic Economic Crisis the conflicting issues of austerity policy in Greece and the relationship within the EU among “givers” and “takers” were discussed. Because of the disparity on the topic Wealth the European solidarity and the cohesion among societies in some member states are at stake. 

 

Panel 2: How do other international actors perceive the European Union?

How the European Union is perceived by other international actors is strongly connected to the developing new world order. Major actors like the US, China and Russia are shifting their focus to their near neighbourhoods. Thus, from their perspective many international rules are not binding anymore. The EU is not perceived as a global actor. Only some aspects, such as the EU social model, are still acknowledged as positive unique features by the rest of the world. 

Framework: "Foreign and security policy challenges for the EU in 2015"

Panel 3: The future role of the EU actors.

Regarding the challenges the European Foreign and Security Policy has to face the participants suggested a stronger defence-cooperation in order to guarantee a consistent crisis management. The new EU-leadership has to coordinate the various approaches and interests to strengthen trust, communication and cohesion within the EU. The EU has to be prepared to cope with external and internal future hybrid threats. 

Framework "Political and strategic lessons learnt of the EU's foreign engagement in the past decade"

Panel 4: The future role of the EU member states.

Today's role of the european member states is changing according to experts. The Lisbon Treaty, the resources and the increasing risk perception are the resources for this change. The European member states are likely to create coalitions with other member states that share the same or similar interests. In the course of the discussion certain fields of cooperation were identified. In order to enable such cooperation the respective resources have to be provided and the corresponding measures need to be taken.

Panel 5: The future of CSDP - the military perspective.

The military panel identified a gap between the political and the military perspective. Therefore, a civil-military approach is needed.The possibilities for cooperation are not used in a sufficient way and the pooling and sharing initiative is often used as an excuse to cut down defence spending. Due to the changing political environment the military dimension is needed more than ever. It would be adequate to intensify the efforts in drafting a European white paper to pull all member states in line. From the military perspective a clear vision of the relevant risks is needed to stop the reduction of defence spending. 

Conclusions and findings based on the questionnaires concerning possible revision of the the European Security Strategy (ESS)

Panel 6: The revision of the EU security strategy.

In a new European Security Strategy all new challenges, goals and instruments of the European Union should be utterly defined. Therefore, the internal as well as the external environmental, political and economical situation of the European Union should be taken into consideration. For the re-orientation and the implementation process of the ESS a middle term evaluation is needed.

Illegal migration, energy security, the BRICS-States and the relationship with Russia have to be re-considered in a new European Security Strategy. Furthermore, it is necessary to strengthen the European hard power and the multilateral comprehensive approach. 

Conclusions

Drawing of the seminar findings, it was concluded that there is an urgent need for the revision of the ESS and for new political ideas as well as concepts in order to overcome the current trend of disintegration. The European Union is the greatest achievement in European history and therefore should not be abandoned by politicians and liberal societies. The changing environment requires flexible instruments to enable the EU to handle different issues and challenges. The process of adopting a new EU`s Global Strategy could become a positive momentum in countering critical developments within the EU and at the periphery of the EU.

Furthermore, it is necessary to generate a new strategic narrative in order to secure a positive public attitude towards the EU in the future. An awareness campaign could help to achieve this goal. The adapted ESS could represent an efficient platform for the integration of some of the new political actors into the European political mainstream. This would provide an opportunity to negotiate common threats and give the existing institutional environment the possibility to adopt a new rational and pragmatic approach. 


Participants: Hannes Swoboda, Member of the Board, Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue; Brigadier Johann Frank, Austrian Defence Policy Director, Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports; Ambassador Pedro Serrano, Principal Adviser on External Affairs, Cabinet of the President of the European Council; Heiner Flassbeck, Director of Flassbeck-Economics; Aurelien Mondon, Lecturer in French and Comparative politics; Viola Raheb, independent consultant on development cooperation and cross-cultural dialogue; Helene Schuberth, Head of Foreign Research Division, Austrian National Bank; Ivan Krastev, Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; Permanent Fellow IWM; Emiliano Alessandri, non-resident Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Marshall Fund of the US; Taghreed El-Khodary, Palestinian journalist, editor at www.fanack.com, a chronicle of the Middle East and North Africa; Richard Gowan, Associate Director, Managing Global Order, Center for International Cooperation, New York University; Sergey Karaganov, Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy and Dean of the School of World Economics and World Politics at the National Research University-Higher School of Economics; Ambassador ret. Georg Lennkh, Member of the Board of Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue; of International Law Institute (Washington, Kampala); Chairman of the Board CARE; Shalini Randeria, Rector, Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna; Angela Stanzel, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; Nathalie Tocci, Deputy Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali, special advisor to EU HR/VP Mogherini; Ambassador Selim Yenel, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Permanent Delegation of Turkey to the European Union; Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center; Ambassador Walter Stevens, Chair of the EU Political and Security Committee (PSC); Colonel Sandro Calaresu, Military Assistant to the Senior Military Adviser, Crisis Management and Planning Directorate, EEAS European External Action Service; Ambassador Johannes Haindl, Ambassador to the Political and Security Committee, German Permanent Representation to the EU Brussels; Ambassador Alexander Marschik, Austrian Representative on the Political and Security Committee of the European Union; Zoltán Martinusz, Director for Enlargement, Security, Civil Protection and FAC Support in the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU; Ioan Mircea Pașcu, Vice-President, European Parliament, Vice-Chair Committee on Foreign Affairs; Nick Witney, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations; Ambassador Julian Braithwaite, Ambassador for the United Kingdom, Political and Security Committee of the European Union; Elmar Brok, Chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, Group of the European People's Party (Christian Democrats), Germany; Ambassador Nils Daag, Ambassador of Sweden to Vienna; Ryszarda Formuszewicz, Strategic Analyses Department, National Security Bureau, Poland; Ambassador Gerhard Jandl, Security Policy Director, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Austria; Maria Eleni Koppa, Professor, Athens University; former MEP, coordinator of the Socialist and Democrat Group on Security and Defence; Josef Janning, Senior Policy Fellow in the Berlin Office, European Council on Foreign Relations; Lieutenant General Markus Bentler, Military Representative of Germany to NATO and the EU Military Committee; Lieutenant General Guy Buchsenschmidt, Commanding General, Eurocorps; Major General Maurice de Langlois, Director of European & Transatlantic Security at the Military Academy's Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM); Jamie Shea, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Belgium; Lieutenant General Günter Höfler, Military Representative of Austria to the EU Military Committee; Col (GS) Thomas Fronek, Head of the Bureau of Security Policy, Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports; Jan Joel Andersson, Senior Analyst, European Union Institute for Security Studies; Yves Boyer, Deputy Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique, Professor of international relations, Ecole polytechnique, France; Ambassador Jakub Wisniewski, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the OECD; Sven Biscop, Director, Europe in the World Programme, Egmont - Royal Institute for International Relations; Visiting Professor, Ghent University & College of Europe (Bruges);

  


Seminar III
 
Europe - a shelter or a fortress? Facing the refugee flows challenge.
 

November 2, 2015 

Main Goal of the seminar was to focus on the security aspects of the current refugee crisis - the consequences of the growing pressure of the inflow for the EU societies, the overreactions and the hypocrisy of the European policy makers. 
Is the solution in building a fortress Europe with frustrated in-looking societies or is the answer in bolder politicians ready to bring EU back among the successful players in the region? 
How should our security strategy adopt to handle the new challenges and can we do it fast enough? 
Is Europe at risk of a wave of uncontrolled migration? 
Challenges - religion, economy, humanity.
Is solidarity in the EU fading away?
Might this be the beginning of a shock wave?
Is the EU at stakes?

 

Introduction: Policy Conclusions from the previous "Europe at Risk 2.0" discussions

Session 1: Foreign and security policy challenges for the EU from the refugee crises.

Session 2: The response to the new security environment.

Session 3: The refugee crisis and the future of CSDP.

Participants: Gertraud Auer D'Olmo, Bruno Kreisky Forum for International Dialogue; Ivan Krastev, Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; Permanent Fellow IWM; David Hayes, Deputy editor of openDemocracy; Roberto Menotti, Editor-in-Chief of Aspenia online and Deputy Editor of Aspenia, Senior Advisor International Activities, Aspen Institute Italia; Johanna Deimel, Deputy Director, Suedosteuropa-Gesellschaft; Torbjörn Sohlström, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Sweden; Udo Janz, former Director NY Office, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and member of UNHCR's Senior Management Committee; Stefan Lehne, expert on European foreign policy and international security, visiting scholar, Carnegie Europe, Brussels; Christopher Caldwell, senior editor, The Weekly Standard; Nikitas Kanakis, Doctors of the World - Greece; Viola Raheb, researcher University of Vienna; Kristof Bender, Deputy Chairman and Senior Analyst, European Stability Initiative; Vessela Tcherneva, Programme Director and Head of ECFR Sofia Office, European Council on Foreign Relations; Ambassador Walter Stevens, Chair of the EU Political and Security Committee (PSC)(tbc); Christian Berger, Director for North Africa, Middle East, Arabian Peninsula, Iran and Iraq in the European External Action Service (EEAS); Jakub Wisniewski, Ambassador, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Poland to the OECD

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